Big Bear Bummers

Address: 733 Winterset Ct, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Link: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Big-Bear-Lake/733-Winterset-Ct-92315/home/4112609

Beds/Baths: 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,543 squares

Purchase Price (3/2022): $1,350,888

Asking Price: $1,450,000

Difference: +$99,112

Commission (5%): -$72,500

Total Gain: +$26,612

The sheer, unbridled delusion is astounding.

In February 2022 this place was listed for a hefty $1,175,000 and our seller got in a hard-fought bidding war, ultimately coughing up an impressive $1,350,888. Ah, the old days of cheap money and irrational exuberance.

Then in May of 2024 they decided it was time to collect their reward for paying the mortgage for two years. In complete ignorance of the realities of the market they listed for $1,450,000, a price that happened to cover their sales commissions and provide a tidy $26,000 profit for all their hard work.

Except that price totally ignores the fact that demand in Big Bear has plummeted due to a confluence of factors: interest rates more than doubling, the job market in California softening, insurance costs exploding and AirBnB not being as lucrative or easy as it used to be (just take a gander at www.reddit.com/r/airbnb_hosts).

And that’s why this listing has stalled out like an old Alfa Romeo. Well, that and the monster carrying costs for the new owner:

Purchase price: $1,450,000

Down Payment (20%): $290,000

Monthly Payment: $9,850/mo (@7.4%)

Ten grand a month! Other than the fancy kitchen (which the previous owner put in, not our seller) I don’t see anything to justify that substantial monthly nut. And neither does the market, obviously. 

This property has been rotting on the MLS for 75 days and there are no signs of that changing any time soon.

And where is their listing agent in all of this? Realtors are supposed to be market experts who provide counsel on pricing, staging and other crucial aspects of listing a home for sale. Ultimately, their job is to do what it takes to close a sale, even if that means telling their clients some hard, painful truths. Like, you know, “Hey idiot, your price is too high.”

But in this case the listing agent enthusiastically agreed to the seller’s delusional, buyer-repellant price. What does that conversation even look like?

Realtor: “Sir, it’s been 75 days without any offers. Do you think it’s time for a small price adjustment?”

Seller: “Well I’m not going to just give it away!”

Realtor: “I understand, your highness. But if you cut the price to, say, $1,425,000…maybe that will spark some interest?”

Seller: “But then I won’t make any money – and everyone on TikTok says real estate only goes up and profits are guaranteed!”

Realtor: “Your excellency, although a sale price of $1,425,000 will just cover the sales commissions, at least it will be a wash and you won’t lose anything.”

Seller: “You don’t understand. I am an investing genius. I mean, just look at how much I overbid to close the deal! That was an Alpha Dog move!”

Realtor: “Um.”

Seller: “Look, these poors just don’t understand how special my property is. The price stays until these losers get it together and pay full boat.”

Realtor: “Sounds good, boss!”

I mean, I can’t be that far off.

The good news is that the seller didn’t put a dime into this place. It looks the exact same as when they bought it in 2022. So if they got serious about pricing soon they could at least somewhat minimize their losses.

But if their realtor doesn’t have the stones to tell them, then I guess it’s my job:

$1,450,000 is a ridiculous asking price and if you truly want to get rid of this place then you’re going to lose money.