Overpay at Your Peril

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Address: 43734 Yosemite Dr, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Link: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Big-Bear-Lake/43734-Yosemite-Dr-92315/home/3513151

Beds/Baths: 2 bed, 2 bath, 992 squares

Purchase Price (2/2022): $679,500

Asking Price: $574,900

Difference: -$104,600

Commission (3%): -$17,247

Total Loss: -$121,847

Wow, this one is going to hurt.

In February 2022, this place was listed for $589,000. Our seller thought it would be a great idea to pay $90,000 over ask. Little did they know this irrational exuberance would set in motion one of the biggest mistakes of their life.

In May of this year our seller listed for $599,900 – a grim admission that they grossly overpaid and it was going to cost them dearly. They have since cut the price to $574,900, representing a devastating loss of $120,000+.

Keep in mind their down payment was $136,000. That means if they have to reduce the price to, say, $560,000 to garner a sale, their entire down payment will go up in smoke. And any price cuts beyond that mean they will have to write a check to just close the sale.

But how many sellers on the cusp of lighting their down payment on fire are willing to throw even more money into the furnace? Not many, which means this is likely headed for a short sale.

I mean, just look at the incredible number of competing homes in Moonridge – 118 as of today.

And that doesn’t even count lower Moonridge!

Anyone serious about actually selling in this environment is going to need to be extra competitive and willing to deal. I don’t think our seller’s $580 per square foot is nearly aggressive enough, but the killer views and tidy appearance are big advantages.

In case you’re interested in purchasing, here is what it will cost you:

Purchase price: $574,900

Down Payment (20%): $115,000

Monthly Payment: $3,905/mo (@7.3%)

That seems like an awful lot of cash for under 1,000 square feet, but I’m rooting for this seller purely based on their willingness to accept reality – unlike most of the delusional sellers we feature here.

At 87 days on the market with the Super Summer Selling SeasonTM coming to a close, things aren’t looking good. Maybe they’ll be able to find a miracle buyer in the next few weeks, but keep in mind the 117 other listings in Moonridge are all praying for the same exact thing.

What do you think?