Big Bear Bummers

The new owner of Unit #10 is 100-percent, without a doubt, catching a falling knife. Although $585,000 might seem like a good deal compared to the seller’s original asking price of $699,900, when you compare it to actual comps in the building it makes no sense.

I could understand if this place was dialed in and offered something that no other nearby units did, but this place is pretty dumpy and weird (see pics below).

For example, Unit #31 just lowered the price to $442,000 and they still can’t get any love. And Unit #31 is in roughly the same condition as #10 (and is maybe a little nicer?), and although it’s down like 450 squares it has the same number of beds and baths as #10. Is 450 square feet worth $143,000?

Here are more examples:

Unit 26 – $475,000 (purchased for $560,000 in March 2022 – ouch!)

Unit 25 – $454,900 (purchased for $400,000 in October 2022)

Unit 12 – $450,000 (purchased for $292,500 in July 2018 – take the money and run you fucking morons!)

Unit 31 – $442,000 (purchased for $367,000 in September 2006)

Unit 32 – $399,900 (They took it off the market, but it was purchased in August 2020 for $255,000)

Paying $585,000 for Unit #10 with dreadful comps like this makes absolutely no sense. What am I missing?!

At least the seller of Unit #10 made out like a bandit. Considering they only paid $273,000 in 2003, this sale allowed them to walk away with a cool $294,000 (not to mention 21 years of equity). Dude, congratulations on finding a sucker to overpay and pad your retirement.

************ORIGINAL POST BELOW************

Address: 39802 Lakeview Dr #10, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

Link: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Big-Bear-Lake/39802-Lakeview-Dr-92315/unit-10/home/3490687

Beds/Baths: 2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,823 squares

Purchase Price (11/2003): $273,000

Asking Price: $595,000

Difference: +$322,000

Commission (3%): -$17,850

Total Gain/Loss: +$304,150

Well look at this greedfaced moron. They bought all the way back in 2003 for $273,000 and think their equity makes them special. Rather than pricing aggressively and walking away with a boatload of free money, in April 2024 they shot for the moon with a stupefying asking price of $699,900.

Although they have somewhat reduced the price since then, they are still rotting on the market with a wildly optimistic Wishing Price of $595,000.

What’s most confusing about this pricing strategy is that $595,000 makes this the most expensive listing in the entire building. Check it:

Unit 26 – $510,000 (purchased for $560,000 in March 2022 – ouch!)

Unit 25 – $475,000 (purchased for $400,000 in October 2022)

Unit 12 – $450,000 (purchased for $292,500 in July 2018 – what the hell are these idiots waiting for?)

Unit 31 – $449,995 (purchased for $367,000 in September 2006)

But Unit 32 is the most troubling because they can’t even get $400,000 after 180 days on the market!

Unit 32 – $399,900 (purchased in August 2020 for $255,000)

So what makes the seller of Unit 10 think he can get $85,000 more than the next-highest priced competitor, and $200,000 more than the lowest? Like, how do you see five condos in your building struggling to sell at lower prices, and conclude that being the highest-priced listing is the smart move?

And I could understand if Unit 10 was the nicest, most dialed-in condo out of all of them but uhhhhhhh…

…this place isn’t that great.

To be fair Unit 10 is 250-450 square feet larger than the other units, but is that really worth an extra $200,000? It has the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms as most of the competing condos.

Although the seller of Unit 10 can’t be dissuaded from their belief that a $300,000 windfall is the bare minimum they “deserve,” the market has a funny way of humbling egotistical sellers. Remember, Unit 20 recently sold for just $435,000 despite an initial asking price of $500,000.

That’s what’s known as a “comp.”

Sure, that comp is down a half bath and is slightly smaller than Unit 10, but the fact is $435,000 is the new starting point for everyone else. Including the appraiser!

As I keep saying, all it takes is for a few distressed sellers to pull the ripcord and the veil of delusion quickly disappears. And when competition is fierce like it is in this building, the smart money gets out while the gettin’ is good.

The most recent comp is $435,000. Will the next sale be even lower?

All it will take is for a handful of sellers to crack, and the whole scheme falls apart.